By: Daniel Poon
(Disclaimer, the following content may not be true, please only read this as a reference.)
“When will the coronavirus end”, this question has been asked many times. Some experts suggest it may naturally disappear like the SARS, another group of experts believes the virus will last for 12 to 18 months until we discover vaccines, a third group of experts thinks that the coronavirus wouldn’t end until we develop herd immunity. In this blog, we will be digging into the theories to see which one is most likely correct.
The first theory is about COVID- 19 can naturally disappear like the SARS. The first evidence rebutting this theory that there is currently no decline in the total cases around the world for example in America the virus is not stopping. The deaths and confirmed cases continue to grow. Other places like brazil are also having a lot of deaths and confirmed cases Some people might argue that china has stopped the virus from spreading, I agree with them however if the rest of the world isn’t doing so great, it doesn’t prove much. The second evidence is the fact that SARS died out in the summer and right now, the season is summer, and the coronavirus is still spreading. This theory has now been proven incorrect, and now let’s move on to the second theory.
As you can see the photos are from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) the first photo is in the united states and the second one is in Brazil, they both show no decline in the cases
The second theory suggests that the virus would at least last for 12 to 18 months until a vaccine develops. The Washington Post, a reliable news source ask scientist Peter Hotez why vaccines take a long time to develop, he tells us that vaccines and not profitable and funding for the vaccine would be difficult, he also suggested that even if the doctor has the funding, and the coronavirus ends then a lot of the vaccines will become stockpiled and wasted. He also says that some vaccines might backfire on the patient due to the virus’s DNA strand constantly mutating. For example, in the 1960s there was a respiratory syncytial virus aka (RSV). It was a virus that only infants could be infected with. When the scientist developed a working vaccine, the virus mutated which cause the vaccine to make the illness worse and cause 2 children to die. He also states that the coronavirus might end up like the flu where you have to take shots every year. Even though engineering a vaccine would be difficult, it certainly can stop the coronavirus. This theory could be considered correct and can be one of the possibilities of how the coronavirus might end.
Link to the Washington Post article
The third theory says that the coronavirus might never end just like the infectious disease measles. The only way where our lives can return to normal is through herd immunity or vaccine development. Vaccine development issues were talked about in the second theory, so I am going to move on and talk about the problem with herd immunity. As scientist Suman Bhattacharjee, a man who majored in epidemiology and is the founder and head of Shomu’s Biology education states that there are 2 methods to herd immunity, the first method requires a long time to develop. Because it is required that at least 80% of the entire population to be infected with the disease and getting cured naturally without vaccines, once you get cured naturally, your body will start knowing how to counter the virus. This method may need to be repeated more than twice, during this prosses, less than 10% of the population will die. This method to achieve herd immunity is grueling but viable and will not be considered as an option to stop the coronavirus. Another way to create herd immunity is by mass-producing a vaccine and giving it to 80% of the population. By giving the vaccine to at least 80% of the world. The 20% will automatically be immune to the coronavirus. An example I made so that you would have a better understanding would be, if 100 people were living in your community, and 80 of them were vaccinated then the 20 people are not vaccinated. The non-vaccinated people are going to be protected by those who are vaccinated because the vaccinated people far outweigh the non-vaccinated people in numbers.
Suman Bhattacharjee’s education site
Now that I summarize the 3 theories. I predict that the second theory is the key to stopping the coronavirus because it takes the least time to solve the coronavirus, I also think that the second theory made a lot of sense and provides a lot of information with reasoning.